CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-11T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25917/-1
CME Note: Bright southern partial halo CME with a wider faint shock front. Its source is a large filament eruption with deep dimming and high post-eruptive arcades occurring in southern hemisphere south of AR 3363 around 2023-07-11T19:15Z (SDO 304,193, EUVI A 195, 304) centered around S35E05.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-14T15:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-15T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

From SIDC Ursigram
:Issued: 2023 Jul 12 1234 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30712
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Jul 2023, 1233UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 216 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 211 / AP: 025 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 015

Coronal mass ejections: ... A filament eruption near NOAA AR 3363 (beta) was observed yesterday with an associated southward partial halo CME first visible in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 19:24 UTC on July 11th with a projected speed around 750 km/s. Detailed analysis suggests that a glancing blow from this CME can be expected to arrive to Earth on July 15th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Lead Time: 51.20 hour(s)
Difference: -20.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-07-12T12:43Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy